Few things in recent history have caught the world by surprise as much as the UK’s exit from the European Union. The reverberations of Brexit have shaken financiers to the core and created massive political uncertainty.
The reasons for the UK vote in favour of Brexit are varied and complex, but one of the key elements of the campaign was people’s views on immigration. The melting pot created by the free flow of people throughout the European Union has brought more disadvantages than benefits in the eyes of the majority of people in the UK.
It’s a view that has the potential to challenge and undermine approaches to diversity and inclusion across the world, says Lyn Goodear, CEO of the Australian Human Resources Institute (AHRI).
“The EU is premised on the benefits of diversity, with structures and systems in place that allow diversity to flourish,” she says. “What the Brexit vote has exposed are the cracks – that we do have biases, both conscious and unconscious, and that’s part of human nature.
What we can’t lose sight of is that diversity is good for countries and economies, companies and communities. We can’t deny the fact that biases exist in our workplaces and the wider world. But what we can do is harness diversity, and rise above those biases to drive an outcome that is for the collective good.”
We can begin by modelling good diversity and inclusion practices in our own workplaces, adds Goodear.
On the wider stage, the financial fallout from Brexit continues to tax the minds of financial experts. Just because Australia is geographically furthest away from the epicentre of this economic earthquake doesn’t mean it won’t feel the effect.
Australian companies that derive a significant portion of their revenue from the UK and Europe might face uncertainty over future revenues and profitability, and downside risk to their share price in the short- to medium-term.
The risk of an economic slowdown or even another recession across the Eurozone is a real possibility, according to CommSec Advisory Senior Investment Adviser Nicky Kritikos. The EU is the biggest market for China’s exports, which means an economic slowdown in Europe would be felt along China’s supply chain. This could be matched with falling demand and prices for commodities all the way to Australia.
Australian business leaders have been cool in their response to Brexit. Kerry Stokes, executive chairman of Seven Group Holdings, says he did not think there would be much impact on trade with Australia. And Gerry Harvey, founder of Harvey Norman, said the impact on Australia would be insignificant. “I think the world is quick to panic,” he tells the Sydney Morning Herald.
However, ‘Don’t Panic’ isn’t a universal reaction. Professor Richard Holden, an ARC Future Fellow at UNSW’s Business School, warns that Brexit would not be a small event. “We can expect a run on sterling – it has fallen by the largest amount in history. Just look at the plummeting pound, a flight to safety that hammers the Aussie dollar and causes stock markets to tank across the globe,” he says.
Employment in Australia might also be impacted, believes Professor Fariborz Moshirian, director of the Institute of Global Finance at UNSW.
“Private investment might slow down due to uncertainty, and that would impact on the level of employment in Australia,” Moshirian says. “Also having a massive impact is the huge fall in the price of oil. Iron ore is also slumping. Make no mistake, the fallout from this decision will be felt for years to come.”
Holden says the big concern is that short-term lending markets could dry up. “That caused the chaos surrounding Lehmann’s demise in 2008,” he explains. “Banks around the world rely on short-term funding. If those markets freeze, then there is an effective bank run. Worryingly, Australian banks rely more on short-term funding than almost any in the world. If confidence remains, credit is supplied. If not, seemingly small events can cause an expectations death spiral.”
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